Thursday 16 April 2015

Late April Weather Forecast

Spring of 2014 was a birders dream on the Avalon. Could it possibly happen again?!

It's a little too early to tell really - but to say the least... well, I don't want to jinx it!
You can decide for yourself:

Forecast for April 23 shows a low pressure system stretching across the Atlantic ocean:
low pressure system = counter clockwise winds

And the same low pressure system a few days earlier (April 20) shows some nice Northeast winds - maybe we can kickstart late April with a Ross's Gull in Conception Bay South?!
^ these are the type of winds that would bring storm-petrels and other seabirds to Holyrood. Storm-petrels should be off of Newfoundland at this time of year in low numbers.

And just as a reminder, here are the wind maps for April 24 & 25 of 2014 - the two days before everything went crazy last year:

I think the key is to have sustained winds coming from the East or Northeast for 3+ days before we can really start dreaming of a Euro fallout anything like last year.


Even a single Euro GP would get the blood simmering: 

A single Black-tailed Godwit would have the blood boiling:

And one of these would cause an instant heart attack:

Expect a weather update on Sunday!