Sunday, 19 April 2015

Update on the Euro Vagrant Forecast

As promised, the Sunday weather forecast update (aka Euro fallout prophesies):

A large low pressure system, currently just South Southeast of the Avalon, will travel North and then swing East out over the Atlantic where it will draw winds from Britain and Ireland and send them directly towards Northeast Newfoundland.

As with any weather system - there are just too many variables and unknowns to be sure of what will happen. But, whatever happens in the next 7 days will be interesting.

Ideal winds will climax on Wednesday, but start to form on Monday night and continue right through to Friday.


Wednesday - a stunning map:



North Atlantic Surface Pressure for Wednesday:


These weather systems are a few days earlier than last years legendary winds that brought 300+ Euro Golden Plovers, 12+ Black-tailed Godwits, 40+ Northern Wheatears, and a bunch of other crazy megas.

A quick review of the Iceland occurrence charts reveals that Eurasian Oystercatcher, Meadow Pipit, and Redwing are among the earlier migrants that we missed last year. Would be nice to get any one of those in 2015 ;)

Geese are also earlier to migrate (Pink-footed & Graylag)

Spring of 2014 saw an incursion of european vagrants of unbelievable magnitude - can we double it up!??


Not the only passerine that will be on my mind next week

2 comments:

  1. Dayumnn Thursday is lookin goooood ... Look forward to reading the results

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  2. Keep in mind that there is already a reported Meadow Pipit for North America. Netitishi Point (southern James Bay), Ontario, on October 24, 1981. Unfortunately it was at a time when no books adequately covered Old World pipits, so at the time the ID was up in the air. However, meticulous notes on the bird were taken; its just a question as to if the Ontario Bird Records Committee would accept such a sighting.

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